Friday, February 29, 2008

Free Agency Day 1

Its been an eventful 12.5 hours. We trade our second round pick for a defensive tackle, and then sign Derek Anderson to a three year extension.

I've posted about Derek Anderson enough. Its a good move to hold onto a potentially-elite quarterback for not alot of cash. Sure, the 1st and 3rd round picks were tantalizing, but A) there was no guarantee anyone was going to give up the picks to sign him, and B) Brady Quinn is no sure thing, and the last thing we want to go through is another long search for a QB.

The Corey Williams trade is still something I'm trying to decide on. He sounds like he'll be a great addition. A 6-4, 313 pound guy with 14 sacks over the past two seasons should be able to plug holes and create pressure in ways that we've been pretty desparate for. That being said, he's not a spring chicken (turns 28 before the season starts), he's not elite, and he's not cheap. Could we have found someone better with our second round pick? Probably not, at least as far as having an immediate impact. But pretty soon Phil's going to have to settle down his wheeling and dealing and return to fundamentals of building through the draft.

I'm not saying that any of Savage's recent moves were bad. As he showed in rebuilding the offensive line last year, the free agents can be valuable when they let your previous high draft picks show their talents. If a rebuilt Defensive Line can freeup our linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties to show what they're made of, then its a great investment.

This is just day one. We still need more warm bodies on the defensive line, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us bring in a wide receiver or line backer. So its good for a start.

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Restocking the D-line?

PFT is reporting that we have worked out a trade with Green Bay for Corey Williams, their franchised Defensive Tackle. No word yet on what we are giving up.

So expectations were right on, Phil Savage is still making his bold moves. I fear we have yet to see how bold.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Another New Bronco?

With word that the Browns have cut Orpheus Roye, the question on everyone's lips is "How long until Denver signs him?"

Tony Grossi makes a good observation: With this cut, along with the decision not to use Simon Fraser's restricted status to make him an offer, the D-line is set to go from just plain bad to short-staffed and bad. Unless Savage has some free agency/trade shenanigans up his sleeve. . .

Its hard to see what he might have planned, though. There aren't many top-flight d-linemen out there, so unless he's intending to overpay for an at-best mediocre line, he must be planning on making a splash elsewhere. Where could it be? Wide Receiver? Cornerback? Linebacker? Or maybe he's just planning on giving Ryan Pontbriand a $30M bonus if he completes more than 20 touchdown passes this season.

Monday, February 25, 2008

Paying Kellen

Peter King had this note this morning:

    I think, speaking of the Browns, that there's something not quite right about Kellen Winslow sniffing around for a new deal with three years left on his contract. Didn't the Browns pay him every dime when he was down with serious leg injuries after a 2005 motorcycle accident? I'm not saying he ought to be bowing to the organization forever, but he's been a Brown for four years. For the first two, he gave the Browns five catches, total. For the last two, he's been outstanding -- 171 catches and high impact. See the new set of problems you have when you actually win a few games?
I think King has a few things mistaken (I'm just going off memory here, so don't quote me):
>> After Winslow's injury, most of his outstanding bonus payments were shifted to the end of his deal. However, he did lose out on $1M as a penalty for his stupidness .
>> However, that is just working off what he could have been otherwise owed. And while Winslow's original deal was termed a "blockbuster", he ended up missing out on millions of escalators due to his missing his first two seasons. That money that he missed is just gone.

If Kellen had gotten the full value of his rookie deal, he would have been overpaid. Given his missing those first two seasons, he's now probably a bit underpaid. Does he "deserve" to get a new contract to make him whole? No. But then again, does the Browns' current contract "deserve" that Winslow sacrifice his body and future ability to walk for the teams' success like he does?

I'd have no problem seeing us give him a bit of a bump. The Postens are gone and he's not only very humbled, but he's proven a dedication to the game and his team that is pretty amazing. Its better to do it now, in a position where you're holding all the cards, than when he's a few days away from being a free agent.

Friday, February 22, 2008

He's back, but is he still hungry?

The Browns resigned Jamal Lewis, with a deal for three years that is reported to be worth $17M (just over the 1 year $5M contract he played under for '07).

It might be less than he could have gotten elsewhere, but its no bargain. If he can give us three years close to what we got in '07, it will be worth it. The only concerns are injuries, or if he decides to start his retirement while he's still on the clock. He's no longer playing for the next contract, so it really comes down to how much of professional is he. Most reports are that he is a good team player, so lets hope they're right.

I'm glad we got him signed. I'm not in the Jamal Lewis fan club, but I'm also not in the Football Outsiders/MBTL Jamal haterz association, either. He's a veteran back who is reliable if not explosive, and has the ability to make teams pay for their mistakes. He is no Jim Brown, but he is a definite improvement on anyone else the new Browns have had.

We should still draft a running back if we can get good value, but with Jerome Harrison, Jason Wright, and Lawrence Vickers on the roster, that is not a high priority.

Hopefully I can recycle this post next week and fill in Derek Anderson's name.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Ahead of the curve

Normally talk about free agents, the draft, and everything else, holds off for the most part until after the super bowl. Fortunately for those of us who don't care what Plaxico Burris thinks, not everyone is ignoring everything else.

PFT has a post about the Browns offer to Derek Anderson, and his reluctance to accept something shorter term than a 5-year deal.

Its a tricky situation, but before the hype (and probably numerous posts from me) starts in full force, I don't think its a bad situation or anything to be worried about. After all, he's a restricted free agent and he either plays for cheap for one year or we get draft picks. So the real key is how to turn make it the most advantageous.

Anderson is still a bit of an unknown commodity. He played great in one game in 06, and in most of the beginning of 07. But he also played average to bad in the rest of 06 and to close out 07. He has a strong arm, and with protection he can get the ball to (or in the general vicinity of) the hands of his playmakers. He also has been guilty of trying to force the ball, and he only appears to know one way to throw a ball: as a laserbeam. So some of the outstanding questions are:
>> Can he succeed without great protection?
>> Can he succeed without above-average receivers snagging his passes?
>> Will he ever learn to avoid bad throws, or will he still be making them when he's pushing 40 playing in the NFC championship game?

So there are questions. But the facts don't lie, with Anderson in there we won 10 games. I like how Peter King put it:
    You can't trade Derek Anderson. You work for years to develop a quarterback and have the kind of passing-game production the Browns had in 2007. You can't take the triggerman and deal him, figuring that Brady Quinn will step in and pick up right where Anderson left off. You have no idea if Quinn's going to be a solid NFL quarterback or not.

    What Savage has to do is keep Anderson around at least one more year, and then make a judgment. If Anderson plays great again next year, then you think of peddling Quinn if you can get good value for him. If not, you hang onto him, and you have an Aaron Rodgers situation on your hands. There are worse things -- like not having a quarterback at all.

The basic goal of Anderson's deal should be:
>> Something we can live with for the next few (3-5?) years if he confirms himself as an elite quarterback. If he does that, getting rid of Quinn (or letting him ride the bench. Don't forget, his contract is full of escalators that he may never hit) should not be a concern.
>> Something that he can live with if he proves to be an elite QB.
>> Something that doesn't kill our cap if his does flame out and we have to cut him.
>> Something gives us a good bargaining position a year or so down the road if we decide to go with Quinn and trade Anderson

I'm thinking the deal should probably include a decent payday for 2008, including a modest signing bonus. Then a big roster bonus due before the 2009 season that will force the Browns management to $h!^ or get off the pot. And then the remainder would be an above average salary that includes a number of incentives that could make it into a very rich contract.

It could be tricky, and Anderson may opt to go the restricted free agent route if he can't get his big guarantees this year. But both he and the Browns have to be realistic about not only his huge potential, but also the huge risks.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

Signs that we are descending into the offseason

Ah, the mediocrity of non-news news.


It draws to mind the middle-school taunt: "No sh**, Sherlock".

One of these days, maybe we'll find out WHAT the offers were.

My guess is that Lewis' deal is two years, probably more pay than the $5M he got for 2007. Not purely because he's worth it, but partially out of respect for him (all reports are that he's been a great addition to the locker room), and anticipation that in free agency some talentless team (Dolphins, Falcons, steelers) would offer him enough money so that he would agree to play for a crappy team.

Anderson's is probably a bit longer term, but a bit less money. Since they still have the fall-back of the restricted free agent thing, and since he's still more of an unknown commodity, that would seem prudent.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Just a punt returner

I missed the Jacksonville/Patriots game. I was thankful to the Jaguars for knocking off pittsburgh, but I got a bit of amusement out of this Peter King nugget:
Goat of the Week

Jacksonville WR Dennis Northcutt. New England led 21-14 early in the fourth quarter on Saturday night, but the Jags were driving relentlessly behind better-than-expected quarterback David Garrard. Northcutt ran a post between two New England defenders, and Garrard hit him perfectly at the Patriots 2-yard line. You couldn't throw the ball any better -- right on Northcutt's hands. One problem. Northcutt clearly had alligator arms on the play, fearing the big hit from the New England safety, and the ball bounced off his hands, incomplete. Instead of tying the game at 21 and giving the Patriots something too think about down the stretch, the Jags had to settle for a field goal to close within 21-17. They never caught up.
He he, some things never change. . .

Friday, January 11, 2008

Post first, read later

Trying to find more details about the Grantham story, I found this piece on the OBR, laying it very clear the rumored background to Grantham's departure. Too bad I haven't been keeping up with my OBR news.

This just highlights what a great resource the OBR is for Browns fans. If only I wasn't too cheap to pony up the cash to be a subscriber. . .

Speak of the devil

This morning I posted about how having stability at the head coach makes it easier to swallow an inevitable coordinator change. I didn't realize that such a change would be only a few hours away. But per PFT, Todd Grantham has been shown the door.

I'm not disappointed, but I am a bit surprised. I'll be curious to find out if this came from Savage or Crennel or both. I guess the writing was on the wall with everyone getting a contract extension but Todd.

Maybe we can get that old steelers coach to be our new defensive coordinator. What was his name? Coward? Something like that?

Or maybe Savage has his eye on former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. I don't know if Ryan does the 3-4 or not, but I'm sure any former Raven would be on Savage's list.

Controversial and loving it

Going into the season I expected the end of the season to bring us a coaching controversy. But it looks like the PD is doing everything they can to foist a QB controversy on us.

I guess there isn't too much controversy about keeping Crennel, although I was surprised to see we're ready to give him an extension. One winning season does not a successful coach make. Remember Butch Davis in 2002? I don't expect Crennel to flame out like Davis, but he could come up with his own unique way to flame out.

Keeping Crennel around does have its upsides:
>> Veterans like playing for us.
>> He, along with his veterans, have really helped bring in an air of professionalism.
>> What's not to love about a fat guy with a mustache?
>> Through some trial and error, he and Savage seemed to have defined their roles pretty well.
>> I'll throw out the "s" word: he gives us stability. That is especially important given the wide latitude he gives his coordinators. No matter which team it is, replacing coordinators seems to be necessary every few years because the good ones get promoted and the bad one get fired. I'm sure the players like to know that even though there will likely be upheaval every few years, its not going to be a complete slash and burn.

Of course, its got its downsides too:
>> Every few games we get a really boneheaded move that may or may not be his fault. Bad challenges to calls, bad clock management.
>> A resistance to change. This means veterans play even when there are rookies who could take their spot. This is the flip side of the positive that veterans like playing for us.
>> He's smart enough to know when to keep his cards close to his chest, and not throw his players and staff under the bus. But lots of times he comes off sounding like an idiot in his press conferences, especially when its explaining a bad performance. I trust that he is not an idiot, and taking the heat for your players can be admirable. But it makes losses just a little bit worse.

All in all, I think the positives outweigh the negatives. This franchise is looking like it has finally turned the corner, and it being run like a professional team should be. That doesn't guarantee success on the field, but it sure makes it alot easier to attain.

---------------------------------------------------

As far as the QB "controversy": What's so controversial? Sign Anderson, listen to trade offers, give Quinn a chance to beat him out.

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

At times like this, its a good thing Phil Savage is a humble man

Since the signing of Rob Chudzinski, the conventional wisdom has been that he was Phil Savage's pick, with Crennel essentially being told "this is your guy, hope you like him". Not that I've ever heard that Crennel protested to Chud's hiring. But it will be hard to forget that Crennel's original pick was fullback-focused (and, as well documented by Ace Davis, none-too truthful) Mo Carthon. If Crennel had had the coordinator pick to make on his own, he well could have ended up going with Jeff Davidson, whose Carolina offense was ranked 27th by Football Outsiders.

If Savage is to be given credit for getting Chud to Berea, then his selection has recently been validated by the Ravens who wanted Chud to come in to interview for their head coaching job. Fortunately for all of us, Chud turned them down, and signed an extension to stay in Cleveland. It works for Cleveland since Chud deserves alot of credit for the offense's resurgence; and it works for Chud since the Raven's coaching job has to be one of the worst positions in the NFL. Who would want to be the Raven's ostensible coach when Ray Lewis is the one calling the shots?

While Chud may be Savage's most important addition last season, his biggest addition is Joe Thomas, who has just won a back-door ticket to the Pro Bowl. Thomas has also been earning "Best Left Tackle" nods from national writers like Peter King and Len Pasquarelli. Its really hard for me to overstate how great it is to finally have an offensive line, and the whole package is really upgraded with a premier (and young!) left tackle. Now when we debate who should be at quarterback or running back, we can discuss them on their own merits rather than constantly saying "if they had protection, they could be. . .".

In one season, Phil Savage has turned around the Browns' offense. There are still pieces that will need tweaking, but even if an off-season of being planned against knocks them down a couple rungs next season, at least it won't be a bad offense. And that is all I ask for. Now about that defense. . .

Monday, December 31, 2007

Winning to lose

After a great season that was more successful than anybody's wildest dreams, I guess I shouldn't revert to the all too familiar "woe-is-me" post, but I'm a Browns fan so it is what comes naturally to me.

We won 10 games (and at least our 10 wins all came against teams that were trying to win . . .) and yet are sitting at home this January. Here is a list of the number of teams who finished either 10-6 or 9-7 and did not make the playoffs. This goes back to the 1990 season, when the 12 team playoffs were put into place.

Season 10-6 9-7
2007 1 -
2006 - 1
2005 1 4
2004 - 3
2003 1 1
2002 - 4
2001 - 1
2000 - 4
1999 - 1
1998 - -
1997 - 1
1996 - 2
1995 - 1
1994 - 2
1993 - 1
1992 - 2
1991 2 -
1990 - 2

Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Offended by silliness

The 2007/8 ProBowl roster is out.

The good news: The Browns have ended their streak of shut-outs.
The bad news: There was some serious shafting going on.

I'll be the first to admit that ProBowl rosters tend to be popularity contests, and reflect past achievements and not current achievements. And furthermore, we all know how much of a team sport is, and how much of a disservice it is to pay homage to a couple guys and not the other guys who are allowing them to excel. But, it is what it is.

Braylon Edwards and Josh Cribbs will be representing the Browns. Thats fair. Cribbs by all means should be there, and its a rare example of the better player getting in over the higher-profile player (Wes Welker).

But how about Browns omissions? Kellen Winslow could beat out Gates or Gonzalez any day of the week. I would have liked to see Derek Anderson in over ben rothlisberger, not because I think he deserves it, just because it would have pissed off steelers fans so much. I also think that Lawrence Vickers probably deserves consideration, although I'll admit to not being the connoisseur of fullback play. Ditto on guard and tackle: I love what Joe Thomas and Eric Steinbach have been doing for us, but I can't speak to their comparative value.

We can complain all we want, but at least we've got guys who are there, unlike the Jacksonville Jaguars. . .

Sunday, December 16, 2007

Best. Game. Ever.

Wow, what a game! This was probably the best I've ever watched. It makes me wish I was a purist.

This must be what fans who reminisce about the old days are talking about. From the first snow covered shot, I knew it was going to have the setting of an old school Browns game. I just didn't expect for it to BE an old school Browns game, but thats exactly what it was. That was power football, a game of field position and execution. I wasn't too surprised to see Jamal Lewis and the Browns Offensive Line do such a good job. But how about that defense? We looked pretty decent against the run.

So now we're tied with Pittsburgh, and the only way we miss the playoffs is if we lose out and Tennessee wins out.

And Baltimore descends to a new low in losing to Miami. What a day!

Lake Effect

The game has just started. Here in DC we've been spared any snow, but turning on the Browns game I see that not everyone has been so lucky.

THIS is a Browns - Bills game. Hellloo Cleveland!

It probably hurts our chances of winning, but its going to be a game to talk about for a long time.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Stop holding down the shift key

I present for your consideration Jerome Harrison.

In three games this year, he has 16 carries for 109 yards, yielding a 6.8 average. 11 of his runs have been successful*, giving him a 69% success rate. He also has one reception for 15 yards. 11 of his runs have come on first down, and he hasn't had any third-and-short runs, but thats more a result of his success (he keeps running for 10-15 yards on first down).

Beyond his successful stats, the kid's running has just been exciting to watch. His cutting and spinning have helped account for at least a chunk of those 109 yards.

Now, I'm not saying he's ready to be the feature back, but based on his production, I'd like to see him get more touches.

* Gaining 40% of the yards needed for a first, or 100% on third down

Monday, December 10, 2007

Beauty is in the Eye of the Beholder

Others call the Browns win over the Jets ugly. It was closer than I would have liked, but I always had faith that we would pull it out.

I think some are denigrating the Browns' performance based on the assumptions that the Jets are a terrible team, and we should have won by alot more. While the Jets certainly don't look like a good team, they probably aren't as bad as their 3-10 record suggests. And considering the number of talking heads who were falling all over themselves to praise Eric Mangini last year, I have a hard time writing them off entirely. They beat the Steelers, after all, and having to face the AFC East, AFC North, and NFC East in one season is a tough call for a young team with injury problems.

The defense was terrible as usual, particularly in the two minute drill. Clearly the Jets were getting desperate, which can help explain alot of their success. We were playing with fire by kicking to Leon Washington, but the Jets recovery of that first onside kick was a matter of luck.

It will be good to go home again next week. And if there is any justice in the world, the Browns Bills game should be on TV here.

Monday, December 03, 2007

My Name is Kellen

Yeah, we got a little bit robbed. But we won on a similar call against the Jets last year. The refs almost never call a force out.

I guess the ref's standard is, it has to be indisputable that he would have come down inbounds if not for the force out. Would Kellen have come down inbounds? Probably, he had the room. But its not like its that hard to picture him coming down with a foot out of bounds. We've seen him make the amazing catches, but I don't remember seeing him pull off any of the receiver-specialty tip-toeing the line catches like I've seen from Braylon.

Oh well, what are you gonna do? The answer is, you don't turn the ball over like that. Especially against a hurting Cardinals defense. As heartening as it is to see that our talent look like its genuinely better than the competition, it doesn't mean anything towards getting to the playoffs if it doesn't come together.

-------------------------------------------------------

I didn't get to see the whole game, and I seemed to miss most of the big plays. So I was just purusing NFL.com's offering.
http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d804ba0a9

A couple thoughts:
>> I haven't seen any frame-by-frame replays, but I can see how Bralyon wasn't down during his 62 yard catch-and-roll-and run. He was touched, then his foot hit the ground, and then he did his roll, and he may have been touched again after he bounced up, but I didn't see it clearly where he was touched while down.
>> In response to Josh Cribbs's punt fumble, the announcers proclaim you never run more than 10 yards for a fair catch. If the punt is headed straight into the back of one of your unwitting teammates, you do whatever you have to to try to get to that ball. If Josh hadn't muffed the punt, it would've been 50-50 whether it would have hit a Brown or Cardinal first. Course, it still would've been better if he had caught it.
>> The announcers during a part of the game that I saw yesterday were going crazy over a third down Warner completion to a diving receiver for an 18 yard pick-up. They seemed to miss the fact that it was actually 3rd and 22, so that reception meant absolutely NOTHING, unless you've got Warner for fantasy football.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Silver linings are cheap

I'm nothing if not irrationally optimistic. Thats why I keep this blog, and follow this team.

This loss was certainly better than the first loss of the season because we can at least point to things that they need to fix. Albeit, they're big fix jobs, but after that first loss, all I could do was throw my hands up and swear.